2014 Fishing Forecast
Island Outfitters February 2014 Newsletter
By Andy Walgamott
1.6 Million Columbia Fall Kings Forecast; Would Be A Record Back To 1938
Get ready for the mother of all fall Chinook runs, and some serious salmon insanity later this year in the Northwest.
This morning, fishery managers put out a prediction of 1.6 million kings back to the Columbia, including 973,000 upriver brights.
That’s on top of the 964,000 coho anticipated back to the big river, and another 230,000 to Oregon Coast streams.
(Now, let’s cross our fingers that these insane numerals aren’t the result of some new-counting-program test gone awry, like what happened with springers at Bonneville earlier this week.)
While last summer saw crazy-good Chinook fishing in the Columbia, a string of shad-count-like daysat Bonneville and record Snake returns, this one-two punch of kings and silvers off our coast and up the river — if it comes in — should make for salmon fishing beyond belief.
“We have a very large run of Chinook and coho in the same year. Now we’re trying to figure out what that means for fishing,” says WDFW’s Ron Roler, who manages Columbia River fisheries.
He says he’s already tying rigs and pinching barbs in anticipation of August and September on the river, and he might just be going heavier on the leader too.
“They’re going to be 4s and 5s,” Roler says.
Last year’s huge return of smaller 3-year-olds indicates to managers that we’ll see older, larger salmon this year, fish that stayed in the ocean and had a full year more of growth for their journey upstream.
Two-thirds of the URBs are forecasted to be 4-year-olds, according to PSMFC supervising fisheries biologist Joe Hymer. He says 3s average 5 to 8 pounds, 4s 12 to 18 pounds and 5s go 20-plus.
“All we gotta have is water temperatures in our favor. I don’t know where we’re sitting on that, but the run size is in our favor. I’m excited about it,” Roler says.
And he hints that some of the stock estimates were on the conservative side, so who knows, maybe even more Chinook will come in.
“I’m ready for fall,” Roler says.
Here are the notes to go with the chart:
- LRH – Similar to the 5-year average (95,500) and 2013 actual return.
- LRW – Largest return since 1989. More than double the 10-year average (13,600).
- BPH – About 40% greater than the 10-year average (80,700).
- URB – Nearly 1 million fish…..
- BUB – About 35% greater than 10-year average (36,500).
- PUB – Record high forecasted return. Highest actual return on record was 207,800 in 2013.
The total forecast of 1,602,900 Columbia River fall Chinook would be the largest return on record since 1938. (The year 1938 is when fish counting began at newly completed Bonneville Dam.)
If you would like to get in on the fishing this summer I would book a trip quickly. We have three boats fishing daily with up to 4 guests per boat. August is almost fully booked and July has limited days available. Don't forget June either, fishing is usually excellent and there are very few boats out fishing. Give us a call at 250-475-4969 if you have any questions!
Island Outfitters 20th Anniversary Sale
This year we are pleased to announce our 20th year in business! As a thank you we are putting on a Logo design contest. To enter the contest visit us on Facebook and download the file and templates by clicking Logo contest. Our winner will receive a half day fishing charter out of Victoria, or a guided day drift on the Cowichan River. Contests have until the end of March to complete.
Winter Steelheading
This season has been a tough one. We had lots of cold low water conditions which prevented fish from entering most of the river systems. Now we finally have had plenty of rain which intern brought river level up. Winter steelhead numbers seem to be down on all systems on Vancouver Island for the second year in a row. There are fish in the Cowichan but fishing is by no means great. Most boats are averaging 1-2 hookups a day. Lets hope after the rivers clear-up some more fish have shown up. If someone is interested in drifting the river and having a chance at catching one of these beautiful wild fish, give us a call and we'd be happy to spend a day or two on the Cowichan in our heated boat with you.
Island Outfitters, 3319 Douglas St., Victoria, BC
(250) 475-4969 info@fishingvictoria.com