Travel in Mexico
Tourism in Mexico
TRAVEL IN MEXICO - PLEASURE OR PERIL?
by Dean Unger
When the latest official statistics came out in 2010 and 2011, respectively, the general public was shocked to hear that violence in Mexico was rampant, and that among the many casualties, there were numerous Canadian tourists who perished in the face of violence - victims, it was said, of the drug wars and opportunistic petty thieves. A short time after, however, many in-the-know began to exchange side-long glances: it was advocates of travel in Mexico, people who are involved in the travel industry and the many communities in Mexico itself, that began to raise their brows in concern. The stats, they said - or the way they were being interpreted - were not accurate.
Not only were they misinterpreted but were sorrowfully wrong, and the price to be paid for it, was potentially dear.
Some reasoned that it was a problem that was easily fixed, but to their shock and dismay, nothing - neither from Canada, nor the U.S. - has seemingly been done to correct the erroneous information, even after having been diligently notified of the matter. So what's the problem?
Dan Goy, owner of Baja Amigos RV Caravan Tours, says a message on Canada's Foreign Affairs website seems to reinforce the misinformation as it recommends avoiding "non-essential travel to Sinaloa state, as it is located in a part of Mexico where 'shootouts, attacks and illegal roadblocks may occur at any time." Further to this, the site reports that tourists have been injured in drug-related violence there, and that Canadians should be particularly aware of their surroundings as a result.
In his blog, Goy writes that the US State Department issued numerous travel advisories concerning visits to Mexico that focus on specific areas. Unfortunately, with the way that this information is being portrayed, many overlook the geographic specificity and get the impression that all parts of Mexico are dangerous.
Part of the reasoning that Mexican Ambassador to the Embassy of Mexico in Ottawa, Alain Cacchione, elicited in stating the Embassy's position, indicated that due to the fact that laws and legislation are different in that country (Mexico), and that law enforcement might be different; that there are troubling language issues, and cultural issues... "If you go off the beaten path - you stand a good chance of - or increase your risk of having something happen to you." Again, there was no differentiation as to geographic locale of these unfortunate events.
The real story, says Goy, is that the threat of violence when travelling in Mexico, is much less per-capita, than you would experience travelling in the U.S.
Goy says he met with a Conservative Government MP in order to express his concerns over the seriousness of the misinterpreted stats, to see if there was something that could be done to set the record straight. "My intention was to bring the situation to their doorstep in the event they weren't privy to the details. "They weren't very communicative," says Goy. "At the end of the meeting they handed me some briefing notes regarding their stats on the matter: their stats are out to lunch. The paper reads more like a political document - an election platform - than an accurate statistical device."
After trying to communicate with the Canadian Government, Goy turned his attention to trying to interpret the information himself, to provide a service to Canadian travelers and for the benefit of the Mexican infrastructure itself, which is fuelled to a large degree from all-important tourist dollars that come into the country every year.
"Essentially, according to the government," Goy says, "We've called a travel advisory against Mexico. As far as their interpretation of the stats, something like 115 Canadians have been killed in Mexico since January 1st, 2006, as a direct result of the Drug Wars in Mexico. This is costly misinterpreted and misconstrued information, which improperly gives the impression that these casualties have been a direct result of violence. Much later in the document," says Goy, "It becomes clear that, in fact, only 12 people have been murdered."
"Meantime, the U.S. has done very much the same thing. They put a warning on every American border - conveying this improper information. Questions asked by many travelers in the face of such information: What exactly are the incidences? What are the details so I can be properly informed? are left unanswered," Goy says.
The perception with many RVers is that there may be a vested interest in keeping the money at home. "Down there (Mexico), you pay 76cents a litre for gas and 80cents a litre for diesel - plus you have inexpensive food and living expenses. Medical costs are way less as well in Baja: a friend of ours broke an arm and paid $75 to have it fixed. Compare this to the same procedure in the U.S., which would ring in at about $5000. Alot of money goes south. Look at the numbers and consider that there are approximately 800,000 RV snowbirds in California and Arizona every winter; many believe it's a smear campaign to keep this money in the U.S. Whatever the incentive is for the skewed statistics, consider the fact that twenty years ago there were 5000 RVers in Baja on average per year: last year there were 500."
Goy points out that the real numbers indicate travel to Mexico is considerably safer than risking vehicle traffic in the USA.
"The odds of being a fatal victim of drug violence in various isolated places in Mexico, when compared with the chances of being a fatal victim of a traffic accident in the USA, are much, much lower. The US Department of Commerce estimates that about 19 million US citizens visit Mexico each year. According to MSNBC, in 2010 at least 106 Americans were killed in Mexico as a result of drug violence (in August 2010, USA Today ran a story "Mexico's Violence not as widespread as it seems" indicating that stats were in fact being misconstrued). Dividing the 19 million visits by the 106 deaths suggests that the chance of a visitor being killed on a trip to Mexico in 2010 was about 1 in 179,000. Even if the stats were properly being interpreted, these are good odds, much better than the annual chance of being killed in a US traffic accident - which is about 9,000 to 1. In other words, the chances of dying in a US traffic accident are roughly 20 times greater than being killed as a consequence of drug violence while visiting Mexico."
The fact remains,"Goy writes, "that some areas of Mexico experience much more drug violence than others. For example, drug violence deaths in Ciudad Juárez are 16 times greater than the Mexico national average. Consequently, the chance of an American visitor getting killed in drug violence in Ciudad Juárez is about 11,400 to 1, still safer than risking traffic in the USA. Consider the risks for a range of Mexican locations compared to the risks of US traffic: in the city of Puebla, the risk is one in 6.6 million compared to one in 750,000 for Mexico City; one in 570,000 for Guadalajara; one in 360,000 for Cancún; about one in 300,000 for Chapala and Puerto Vallarta, and about one in 50,000 for Tijuana and Mazatlán."
"These results indicate that the chance of a visitor being killed by drug violence in Mexico is extremely unlikely, far less likely than the risk of being killed in a US traffic accident. For example, a visit to Chapala is 33 times safer than risking US traffic for a year, while Mexico City is 83 times safer. Though this analysis focuses on the travel of US tourists to Mexico, the results are equally relevant for visitors from other countries."
Dan's Blog: www.bajaamigos.net/july-30-2011-which-is-safer-mexico-or-the-streets-of-the-us/